The abrogation of Article 370, abruptly from J& K had sent shock waves in the entire Muslim world. Especially in the Muslim countries who sponsor jihad in Kashmir. Among the concerned world nations, Pakistan seems to be utterly confused and perplexed by the turn of events. Their entire narrative about the freedom struggle of Kashmiris from the oppressive Indian government, have fallen flat. Pak Army’s carefully nurtured assets to dispel peace and harmony in Kashmir, their terror groups, seem suddenly rudderless, lost its steam to unleash terror.
The recent unparliamentary statements from Pakistani leadership, right from Prime Minister Imran Khan, Army Chief Bajwa till local body leaders, from Pakistan, shows Pakistan is rattled, threatened and is feeling the real heat because of the scrapping of article 370.
The crux of this turmoil is, by abolishing article 370, India has unilaterally decided that J&K is no more a disputed territory. Now Pakistan is worried that, the struggle for J&K, which was their main plank since the inception of Pakistan, and an icon for Pakistan’s existence, is wiped out. It also implies that India, by abolishing article 370 has unilaterally converted LOC into the defacto-international border.
Pakistan had already started sabre- rattling and had even issued desperate statements verging to insanity. They are literally threatening the world by saying, if article 370 is not reinstated, it may trigger a nuclear war.
An analysis of Pak strategy
Why Pakistan is doing such knee-jerking responses? There could be many reasons.
Pakistan knows, scrapping article 370 was needed to correct the internal problems within India but it is not India’s final solution. Pak fears that India will not stop at this and will capture PoK to integrate entire J&K, which will be the final solution. The prospect of losing PoK is what rattles Pakistan.
The recent statements made by our Defence Minister and Home Minister, about claiming back POK, is an indicator. Pakistan is feeling the heat because of a couple of reasons:-
1) Pakistan’s economy is in shambles. Pakistan can’t afford to fight a conventional war with India for more than 10 days, with the present circumstances.
2) If India moves its troops to occupy POK, a section of the people of POK may rally with Indian troops and create havoc, neutralizing the Pak army resistance. Moreover, the 6.5 lac Pak Army ultimately is no match for the 12 lac Indian Army. To counter the might of the Indian Army, nuclear war is the only option. However, Pakistan knows, that nuclear war could be the end game. It could boomerang on Pakistan itself, having the potential to wipe out the entire nation from the world Atlas. Is it worth to sacrifice the entire nation and people of Pakistan for a miserable strip of disputed land?
3) But, as a matter of fact, PoK has emerged as a land of international ramifications, with the launching of CPEC project in PoK, by China. Hence any attempt by India to reclaim PoK will be fiercely resisted by China since China had pumped in billions of dollars to construct roads, port and massive infrastructure for CPEC project, which finally clogs in with its mega world economic project – Belt and Road Initiative(BRI).
4) International pressure – Pakistan’s International standing is so weak that no country in the world except China, is ready to stand in support of Pakistan. In recent days, Pakistan did try to internationalize the Kashmir issue but failed miserably because no one except China supported it.